Grand National trends 2025
Everyone wants to find an edge when placing a bet, and that’s never truer than when trying to pick the Grand National winner. Several positive and negative trends have emerged since the Grand National was first run in 1839, and each could help you find the winner from the massive 34-runner field.
Grand National trends don’t lie, and we’ve listed the main positive and negative ones that apply to the 2024 Grand National below. These trends provide insight into the traits shared by Grand National winners of the past, giving you a solid base to make your 2025 Aintree Grand National selections to beat the bookmakers!
Positive Grand National trends
- Horses aged 8 or older have the best recent record
- 13 of the last 15 winners were Grand National debutants
- Horses that have won or placed in a National race of any description (Check out at the Scottish, Irish and Welsh Nationals)
- Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
- Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
- Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National.
- Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
- Horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National often do well
- Horses that have won over 3 miles in the past
Negative Grand National trends
- Horses aged 8 or younger don’t have the best of records – the last 7-year-old to win before Noble Yeats was in 1940
- Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record
- Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
- Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records – although, the 2018 Grand National winner, Tiger Roll, did buck this trend in 2019
- Horses that had last raced over 50 days ago often don’t run well
- Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well.
Jockey Davy Russell jumps the last fence on Tiger Roll on his way to winning the Grand National horse race on the final day of the Grand National Festival at Aintree Racecourse in Liverpool, northern England on April 14, 2018. / AFP PHOTO / PAUL ELLIS @SCANPIX
Grand National trends and tips – Do’s and dont’s
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With 34 runners contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles, the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to finding the winner. However, despite those factors, you can often identify the horses best suited to the race by following the Grand National trends listed on this page.
With so much Grand National history, there are plenty of Grand National trends and stats to consider before betting on the race each year. Some trends have hot periods, while others are ‘must-have’ stats you must consider before making your Grand National selection.
The Grand National winner will likely fall down on at least one or two of these key trends, so deciding which trends are more important is vital. It’s easy to get lost in the mountain of stats available, but you can’t go too far wrong by siding with the trends that have stood the test of time. If something has happened more often than not in the last 20 Grand Nationals, it’s better to put the odds and history in your favour and look for horses with profiles that fit those key stats.
Top Grand National trends to beat the bookies
Weight-based trends
Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory, but looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point. If you look back over the winners we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 21 of the last 28 winners carried 10st-12lbs kilograms or less! Since 1978, 120 horses have tried to win with more than 11st 5lbs – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012.
Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip? You have to trawl back to 1970 and a horse called Gay Trip to find the last victor that won the Grand National having not previously won over at least 3 miles.
Age-based trends
Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 8 years-old or older certainly the ones to focus on. Before Noble Yeats won in 2022, you had to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7-year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon! So, don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager, while avoiding horses aged 7! It’s also worth noting that only five 8 year-olds have won the last 28 renewals. 25 of the last 31 winners were aged 9 or older, while no horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969.
Irish-based trends
Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners. Eight of the last 15 winners came from Irish-based stables and 18 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland!
Experience over fences
With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to contend with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a huge advantage. Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase – or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at. 13 of the last 23 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before. Three of the last 11 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season, while five of the last 18 winners had been unplaced in the Grand National the year before. 21 of the last 23 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers.
Favourite-based trends
The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, is when the betting market really kicks into gear. It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (normally in February each year), so this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting. Seven of the last 30 runnings have been won by the favourite (23%), while 18 of the last 30 (60%) market leaders finished in the top four places). Remember, just two of the past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race has won for 35 years. The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals had been Red Rum in 1974. But after 2018 & 2019, Tiger Roll now also has that achievement on his racing record.
This Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite Noble Yeats popping-up at 50/1 in 2022, punters generally tend to get this race right.
Stamina-based trends
Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 40 strong field down in one easy swoop is just checking how many days ago your fancy last ran. The majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day. If you want to drill this trend down a bit further, you’ll notice a large number of recent Grand National winners actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world. 29 of the last 30 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 24 of the last 30 raced no more than 34 days ago.
Cheltenham-based trends
Another stat that often gets wheeled out relates to how poorly horses perform in the Grand National if they are heading to Aintree off the back of a win at March’s Cheltenham Festival. In fact, only four horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season have gone on to win the Grand National since 1961. The 2023 Grand National was one of the few times when this particular trend failed to hold true, as Corach Rambler successfully followed up victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase by winning at Aintree.
Aintree Grand National Winner Trends
32/33 – Rated 137 or higher
31/33 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
29/33 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
28/33 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
25/33 – Returned a double-figure price
25/33 – Aged 9 or older
26/33 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
25/33 – Carried 10-13 or less
22/33 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
22/33 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
20/33 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
20/33 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
20/33 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
18/33 – Carried 10-8 or less
18/33 – Placed favourites
16/33 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
13/33 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
13/33 – Trained in Ireland
7/33 – Ran in a previous Grand National
8/33 – Won last time out
8/33 – Won by the favourite or joint-favourite
1/33 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or less
20 Year Aintree Grand National Trends
17/20 – Had won over at least 3m previously
17/20 – Ran less than 50 days ago
18/20 – Officially rated 137 or higher
15/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/20 – Winner from the top 8 in the betting
12/20 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/20 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/20 – Experienced the National fences before
7/20 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/20 – Won their last race
5/20 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
Most Recent Grand National Winners
2024 – I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 – Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 – Minella Times (11/1)
2019 – Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 – Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 – One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 – Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 – Don’t Push It 10/1jfav
2009 – Mon Mome 100/1
2008 – Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 – Silver Birch 33/1
2006 – Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 – Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 – Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 – Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 – Bindaree 20/1
2001 – Red Marauder 33/1
2000 – Papillon 10/1
1999 – Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 – Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 – Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 – Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 – Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 – Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 – VOID RACE
1992 – Party Politics 14/1
1991 – Seagram 12/1
1990 – Mr Frisk 16/1
New to betting on the Grand National? Check out our betting guide and our top tips for betting on the Grand National.
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