Grand National Betting
The whole nation loves a bet on the Grand National and everyone seems to have their own method of making their selection. For many it will be their only bet of the year and so their choice may be based on nothing more scientific than their lucky number, their house number, or the name of a friend or relative. Similarly, the rather politically incorrect “housewives choice” is unlikely to emerge after long nights of studying the formbook, but will instead be a grey, or be based on the jockey or trainer.
Believe it or not, however, as our trends section shows, it is possible to apply an element of science to the selection process and whilst, as the saying goes, there are lies, damn lies and statistics, it is hard to ignore certain of the historical trends.
In particularly, it is now common knowledge among more regular punters that horses carrying in excess of 11 stone rarely seem to win the National anymore and this, in theory, immediately allows us to rule out a good chunk of the field.
The next thing to bear in mind if you intend to have a bet before the day of the big race is that, of the horses entered (see the Grand National entries), only forty can run and so any horse below, say, number fifty five in that list has very little chance of taking part.
The key to having an ante post bet, of course, is to try to find a horse that is guaranteed to make the line up on the day and with the National this task is made even trickier than usual because of the limit on the number of runners who can take part. As always, well fancied horses will drop out right up to the day of the race due to injury, illness, loss of form etc. However, if your selection is below number 40 then there is this additional risk to take into account.
Finally, there is one completely unscientific factor to take into account. The history section of this site relives the greatest National stories of all time. However, almost without fail there is a fairytale behind every National winner and when analyzing the form of this year’s runners it is always worth having at the back of your mind whether there would be a fitting National story behind a win for a particular horse.
Grand National Betting History
Due to the size and competitive nature of the Grand National field, the race is often won by a horse with a double-figure starting price.
Only Grittar (7/1), West Tip (15/2), Rough Quest (7/1), Earth Summit (7/1) and Hedgehunter (7/1) have been returned at less than 10/1 since 1978.
Since 1970, only four favourites have won: Grittar in 1982, Rough Quest in 1996, Earth Summit in 1998 and Hedgehunter in 2005. Both West Tip (15/2) and Rhyme 'N' Reason (10/1) were second favourites.
There have been a number of long-priced shocks in recent renewals: Last Suspect at 50/1, Royal Athlete and Ben Nevis both at 40/1, Red Marauder and Sliver Birch both at 33-1, Maori Venture and Little Polveir both at 28/1 and Rubstic at 25/1.
Three 100/1 shots have been placed since 1980, Over The Deel in 1995, Camelot Knight in 1997 and Philson Run in 2007. In 2009 however, Mon Mome went one better and won the National at 100/1.
In total 5 winners in the race's history have started at 100/1: Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947), Foinavon (1967) and now Mon Mome (2009).
Poethlyn (1919) is the shortest-priced winner of the race at 11/4.
However, you should beware the favourites! Although Comply Or Die did the business in 2008 when 7/1 joint-favourite, the 2009 7/1 favourite, Butler's Cabin, could only finish 7th and top tips for the National don't always fare too well as this look back over the last few years proves:
| Year | Horse | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Butler's Cabin (7/1) | 7th |
| 2008 | COMPLY OR DIE / Cloudy Lane (7/1) | WON / 6th |
| 2007 | Point Barrow / Joe's Edge / Monkerhostin (8/1) | Fell at 1st / Pulled-up at 20th / Refused 7th |
| 2006 | Hedgehunter / Clan Royal (5/1) | 2nd / 3rd |
| 2005 | HEDGEHUNTER (7/1) | WON |
| 2004 | Clan Royal / Bindaree / Joss Naylor / Jurancon II (10/1) | 2nd / Unseated at 6th / Pulled-up before 19th / Fell at 4th |
| 2003 | Shotgun Willy (7/1) | Pulled-up after 21st |
| 2002 | Blowing Wind (8/1) | 3rd |
| 2001 | Edmond / Inis Cara / Moral Support (10/1) | Fell at the chair (15th) / Fell at 4th / Refused Canal Turn (8th) |
| 2000 | Dark Stranger (9/1) | Unseated rider at 3rd |
| 1999 | Fiddling The Facts (6/1) | Fell at second Becher's Brook (22nd) |
| 1998 | EARTH SUMMIT (7/1) | WON |
| 1997 | Go Ballisitc (7/1) | Pulled-up at the 29th |
| 1996 | ROUGH QUEST (7-1) | WON |
| 1995 | Master Oats (5/1) | 7th |
| 1994 | Moorcroft Boy (5/1) | 3rd |
| 1993 | Void Race | - |
| 1992 | Docklands Express (15/2) | 4th |
| 1991 | Bonanza Boy (13/2) | 5th |
| 1990 | Brown Windsor (7/1) | 5th |
| 1989 | Dixton House (7/1) | Fell at first Beecher's Brook (6th) |
Wacky Wagers
Over the years there have been many bizarre bets on the Grand National - some winners and some losers. Here are some of our favourites:
Bingo club tycoon, Mike Fuller, who owned 2003 Grand National winner Monty's Pass, won nearly £1 million on the race. His biggest bet was £10,000 at 50/1 which earned him £500,000. So when Barry Geraghty crossed the line, Fuller landed the biggest gamble in the race's long history.
Amateur rider and optimist Peter Walker, from Blackpool, bet £10 at 1000/1 with William Hill in 1993 when he was 54 that one day he would become the oldest man ever to ride in the National.
Judy Higby from St Albans, Herts, tried to bet that the 1993 Grand National would not be run after she had a premonition. Her bookie said he'd do her a favour by not taking her money because it couldn't happen. The race was cancelled after a false-start fiasco!
Terry Ramsden staked over £100,000 on his own horse, Mr Snugfit, in 1986 and stood to win over £1 million. With three fences left Mr Snugfit, the 13-2 favourite, had most of the 20 runners in front of him but jockey Phil Tuck galvanised him so well that he passed all but three and finished in fourth place to give his owner a small profit from his each-way bets.
Headmaster Peter Rogers collected £6,000 in 1983 after betting the parents of children at his St Michael's Junior School in Kirby that he could complete the Grand National course - without a horse. He did it in 40 minutes - and donated his winnings to school funds.
In 1971, Lord Poulett, owner of The Lamb, had a dream in which his horse won the National, ridden by jockey Tommy Pickernell - so he hired Pickernell. The Lamb started 11/2 second favourite - and duly won!