Grand National Odds – Update
The bookmakers have now had a few weeks to react to Blaklion’s defeat in the Haydock Grand National Trial – so, has the betting market changed much? This Grand National Betting Odds Update could get you closer to picking the Grand National Winner!
Blaklion – Grand National Betting Odds
Last year’s Grand National runner-up was well beaten into second in that Haydock race in February, and despite remaining favourite for the Grand National for a few days, he’s got a few big challengers now.
Most firms still make Blaklion around 10/1*, but some bookmakers are a much bigger 14/1* and it wouldn’t surprise us if we see Grand National Betting odds rise nearer to 20/1* in the weeks ahead.
This Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 year-old had to lump round 11-12 in that Haydock Trial, but let’s not forget that he’s also rated a massive 9lbs higher than the 2017 Grand National. He’s also set to carry 11-6 this year and only had 11-1 in 2017. For us, there is no doubting he’s a classy sort and he looks a better horse this season, but we’d still be concerned that if he couldn’t win with 11-1 last year then why is he going to in 2018 with 5lbs more?
The bookmakers seem to also be latching onto this and despite his love for these tricky Aintree fences it’s still worth pointing out he’s actually only won one of his last 9 starts! With that in mind, he looks a good option to be in the frame, but we’d rather be taking him on than backing him. Especially at around the 12/1* mark that he is at the moment.
Total Recall Has Been Well-Backed
This Willie Mullins-trained 9 year-old is the big mover over the last few weeks in the Grand National betting market. He’s come in from around 20/1* to be as short at 9/1* in places, with most firms having him between 10/1*-12/1* though.
He’s already landed the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy this season – the Hennessy Gold Cup to most people – plus dotted-up over hurdles in Ireland at the Dublin Racing Festival. It’s worth pointing out that he’s also in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (16th March) at this stage so a lot will depend on his performance there too.
If he runs well in the Gold Cup, his 10/1*-12/1* Grand National odds are sure to be slashed again, but – it goes without saying – a poor run would see his Grand National betting odds lengthen again.
At 9 years-old, and with 11-1* to carry, he looks to have a lot going for him and being rated 156 could looks a very decent mark after the Gold Cup. Don’t forget the Grand National weights are set in stone now so no matter how each horse runs from now until the big race – their allocated weights can’t change.
Abolitionist To Miss The Grand National – The other big news from the 105 entries at this stage is that the Dr Richard Newland-trained Abolitionist will miss the race. This 10 year-old had been well-touted to run a big race and looked to be a leading chance for a stable that, don’t forget, won the Grand National in 2014 too.
The former Leinster National winner had been plagued with injury over the last year or so and even though the Grand National is still a month or so away connections feel he’s not going to recover in time.
Other Grand National Movers
Gold Present (20/1*), Cause Of Causes (16/1*), Minella Rocco (20/1*) and Definitly Red (20/1*) are four others that figure high up in the Grand National betting, but like Total Recall these all have potential engagements at the Cheltenham Festival so it might be better to see how they fare there first.
The other interesting mover is another Willie Mullins runner – Bellshill. This 8 year-old is now gaining firm support from punters and is around 20/1*, but as short as 14/1* with some bookmakers.
This 8 year-old still has plenty of time on his hands, but with only 10-7 in weight has been handed a feather-weight burden my the handicapper. He was a 10 length third to Might Bite in the 2017 RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse at the end of February – a win that was another main reason his Grand National betting odds dropped.
He’s got a Ryanair Chase entry at Cheltenham, plus one in the Irish Grand National (2nd April), so we’ll have to see if he runs in any of those. He’s also gone well at Aintree twice before, albeit not over the National fences, but that is still a good sign the flat track suits.
Just five chase runs would be a concern in a race like the Grand National, but let’s not forget he’s a Grade One winning hurdler and with 3 wins over fences (from 5) there is surely more to come from this 8 year-old. Of course, this 4m+ trip is another unknown, as the furthest he’s gone to date is 3m1f. However, his mark of 148 and with just 10-7 to carry certainly catches the eye and makes him the most interesting Grand National market mover at this stage.
*Odds at the time of writing. All odds subject to change.