Aintree Grand National 2018 – Daily Betting Trends you Need to Know

Last Updated 19 Apr 2018 | Commercial content | 18+

Grand National Betting Trends – Day One – Thursday 12th April 2018

A great week in prospect for horse racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting kicks-off on Thursday 12th April 2018 with the ITV cameras showing five races LIVE each day. On day one the Betway Bowl, Aintree Hurdle and the Randox Health Foxhunters’ Chase are some of the key highlights so there is plenty to look forward to with these Grand National Betting Trends.

We give you all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

2.20pm – Doombar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle 4yo Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

2017 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL (4/11 fav)
Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/15 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/15 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
9/15 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 11)
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
11/13 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 10 of the last 19 (53%) runnings
13/18 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5/28 winners didn’t win at least twice over hurdles before

2.50pm – Betway Bowl Chase Grade 1 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: TEA FOR TWO (10/1)
Trainer: Nick Williams
Jockey: Lizzie Kelly

12/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
6/15 – Aged in double-figures
4/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won last time out
15/34 (44%) winners were aged 10 or older
23/34 (68%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
12/21 (57%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 25 (52%) renewals and 6 of the last 8 (75%)
4 of the last 7 winners ran in this race 12 months ago
3 of the last 9 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

3.25pm – Betway Aintree Hurdle Grade 1 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: BUVEUR D’AIR (4/9 odds favourite)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/15 – Irish-trained winners, plus 18 of the last 42
9/15 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
9 of the last 17 (53%) winners had won at this meeting before
6 of the last 11 Champion Hurdle winners to race have lost
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 1 of the last 17 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won

4.05pm – The Randox Health Fox Hunters´ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2017 Winner: DINEUR (16/1 odds)
Trainer: James King
Jockey: Mickey Bowen

15/15 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 32 were younger than 9)
12/15 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged in double-figures
11/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Irish-trained winner (Just 4 since 1983)
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
22 of the last 25 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 34 winners were aged younger than 9
21 of the last 25 (84%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
9 of the last 13 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 10 of the last 16 (63%) renewals

4.40pm – Betway Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3 (Class 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2017 Winner: Double W’s (8/1 odds)
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Jockey: Brian Hughes

2007 Grand National

Photo (cropped) by Carine06 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0

14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Carried 11-1 or less
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/15 – Aged 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/15 – Aged 7 or younger
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winner
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 13 of the last 20 (65%) runnings
16 of the last 18 (89%) winners carried 11-2 or less
A Novice has won 8 of the last 16 (50%) renewals
3 of the last 11 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 19 (37%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)

Grand National Betting Trends – Day Two – Friday 13th April 2018

As we move into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 13th April 2018 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races for us. The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are three of the highlights as the top-notch action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

2.20pm – The Crabbies Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2017 Winner: PINGSHOU (16/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

15/15 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/15 – Finished first or second last time out
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Aged 5 years-old
8/15 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/15 – Had raced on the flat before
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 27 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1977
9 of the last 18 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: MIGHT BITE (8/13 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville

15/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
11/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
6/15 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Irish trained winners
28 of the last 29 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 27 winners had won over at least 3m before
33 of the last 37 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

3.25pm – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: FOX NORTON (4/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

15/15 – Raced within the last 30 days
14/15 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/15 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Irish-trained winners
6/15 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
20 of the last 27 (74%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
29 of the last 32 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 23 (57%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 27 (70%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
11 of the last 14 (79%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
25 of the last 27 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2017 Winner: Ultragold (50/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

14/15 – Raced within the last 34 days
14/15 – Aged 10 or younger
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/15 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/15 – Raced within the last 23 days
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Trained by Peter Bowen
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 12 (58%) winners raced in last year’s race
9 of the last 12 (75%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
9 of the last 14 (64%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 25 (56%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2017 Winner: The Worlds End (3/1 odds)
Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Adrian Heskin

13/15 – Had run within the last 35 days
11/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/15 – Won their last race
5/15 – Raced in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last time out
3/15 – Favourites that won
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (91%)
21 of the last 23 (91%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 25 (80%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
7 of the last 12 (58%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2010 Grand National

Photo licensed under CC0 1.0

Grand National Betting Trends – Day Three – Saturday 14th April 2018

As we head into the final day of the 2018 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 14th April 2018 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to take in.
The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always popular contest, but – as we all know – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.
So, as always, we’ve got all the key stats for all the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.
Good Luck!

2.20pm – Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: Finian’s Oscar (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

14/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
13/15 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/15 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
11/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
11/15 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/15 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/15 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 8 favs have won)
6/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 7 runnings)
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 14 (43%) runnings between them
6 of the last 8 runnings went to a 5 year-old

3.00pm – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2017 Winner: San Benedeto (4/1 odds)

Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Nick Schofield
15/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
15/15 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
15/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/15 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/15 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
9/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/15 – Won their last race
6/15 – Favourites that won
5/15 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/15 – Irish-trained winners
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 7 runnings)
2/15 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 5 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 6 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 23 (78%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season

3.40pm – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: Sizing Codelco (10/1 odds)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

13/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
13/15 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/15 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
9/15 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/15 – Unplaced in their last race
3/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Favourites that won
1/15 – Number of Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Only 3 of the last 19 (16%) winners were aged 10+
Only 2 winners carried more than 11st in the last 14 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 41 runnings
6 of the last 8 (75%) winners were rated between 134 and 139

4.20pm – Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2017 Winner: Yanworth (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Alan King
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/14 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
12/14 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 30 days
10/14 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
10/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/14 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/14 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
7 of the last 9 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 9 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2017 Winner: One For Arthur (14/1 odds)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
– 26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/27 – Placed favourites
· 14/27 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 14/27 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 8/27 – Trained in Ireland (inc 5 of the last 12 years)
· 6/27 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/27 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 5/27 – Won last time out
· 2/27 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/27 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/27 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/27 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 120 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 14 of the last 19 winners were bred in Ireland
  • Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
  • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
  • 12 of the last 21 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 16 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Only three 8 year-olds have won the last 24 renewals
  • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 33 years (76 have attempted)
  • 19 of the last 21 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (15 Year)

14/15 – Had won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago
13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/15 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/15 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Experienced the National fences
6/15 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/15 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 28/1

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