Grand National Trends
Given the unique challenge that it presents to both horse and rider, it is not surprising that many people see the Grand National as a lottery. However, over the years some remarkably consistent statistical trends have emerged. Indeed, for reasons of weight, age, official rating and previous National experience, well over two-thirds of the field can normally be discounted when searching for the winner.
For example, horses who have yet to win over 3 miles (a basic requirement you would have thought for a potential Grand National winner) have not won the Grand National since Gay Trip in 1970. Around a quarter of the field in recent years had not won a race over at least that distance so it's easy to draw a line through them.
Equally, of the last 18 National winners, 16 had previously won over fences against 12 or more rivals. For example, 2009 100/1 winner Mon Mome won a 15-runner 3m 1˝f handicap chase at Cheltenham the previous December and had also previously won a 14-runner handicap chase at Aintree. The two that failed this test were Bindaree, who had at least been third in a Welsh National, and Lord Gyllene, who had never raced against more than 10 rivals before showing up at Aintree.
In 2007 this trends review highlighted five horses to follow in the Grand National based purely upon such historical trends. These five included the 33-1 winner Silver Birch!
KEY STATISTICS
Age
The last time a seven year old won the race was 70 years ago (Bogskar won the National at the age of seven in 1940) and you have to go back a further 28 years to find the last winning six year old.
A horse needs experience and maturity to cope with such a rough race, tackling unfamiliar obstacles while other horses are crashing about on all sides. The chances are that any seven-year-old will be found wanting.
Seven-year-olds still entered include The Package, Tricky Trickster, Deutschland, Piraya and Palypso De Creek. Judging by the fate of their age group in recent Nationals, they'll do well to finish the race.
In addition, only two teenagers have ever won the National, with the last success coming 87 years ago. In fact, no teenager has even made the frame since 1969.
Breeding
Mon Mome bucked the trend last season by becoming the only French bred to have won the Grand National for nearly a century. Admittedly, Gallic breeders did not had anything like as many runners in the past as they have had in recent seasons since the massive influx of their horses to these shores, but since 1998 they have provided over 25% of the runners with only that one success.
Very few races in France are run beyond 3 miles and so breeders have no need to install strong stamina genes into their stock. French breds are also trained harder from a younger age, so they can be past their best when they hit eight or nine years of age and the National is not a race for early maturing types.
For now, we are going to assume that Mon Mome’s win was a one off.
Stamina
Every single winner of the National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over three miles or further over fences, so the claim that two-and-a-half milers make perfect Grand National contenders is misleading.
Novices
The last successful novice was Mr What in 1958.
Weight
The most significant, and perhaps best known, statistic for finding National winners is that in the last 53 years only one horse, Red Rum, has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory. In addition, Hedgehunter is the only horse since Corbiere in 1982 to lump more than 11st to victory and he carried only 1lb more than that threshold. Horses carrying over 11st 5lbs are 0 – 88 since 1977.
There is a possibility that weight may no longer make such a great difference in the National given that Phil Smith, the senior handicapper, has changed the way that weight is allocated. The result is that a lot more horses are jammed up towards the top of the scale than used to be the case.
Class
Of the last ten winners all had demonstrated their class to win this race by previously landing a Listed or Graded (Class A or 1) race.
In addition, all of the last ten winners had an official rating higher than 136.
Jumping
None of the last ten winners had fallen more than twice over fences in their entire careers.
Days since last run
In the past 20 years, all winners had run within the previous 48 days. Many of those actually ran inside the past month.
Experience
Each of the last ten winners had had at least ten starts over fences.