Grand National Trends
Given the unique challenge that it presents to both horse and rider, it is not surprising that many people see the Grand National as a lottery. However, over the years some remarkably consistent statistical trends have emerged. Indeed, for reasons of weight, age, official rating, breeding and previous National experience, well over two-thirds of the field can normally be discounted when searching for the winner.
For example, horses who have yet to win over 3 miles (a basic requirement you would have thought for a potential Grand National winner) have not won the Grand National since Gay Trip in 1970. Around a quarter of the field in recent years had not won a race over at least that distance so it's easy to draw a line through them.
Equally, of the last 19 National winners, 17 had previously won over fences against 12 or more rivals. For example, 2009 100/1 winner Mon Mome won a 15-runner 3m 1˝f handicap chase at Cheltenham the previous December and had also won a 14-runner handicap chase at Aintree earlier in his career. The two that failed this test were Bindaree, who had at least been third in a Welsh National, and Lord Gyllene, who had never raced against more than 10 rivals before showing up at Aintree.
It is worth noting that there are so many Grand National trends that it is more than likely that the winner is going to fall down on at least one. However the following key statistics provide us with a starting point to begin whittling down the 40 contenders to a small group of likely winners.
2011 TRENDS SUMMARY
Age
The last time a seven year old won the race was 71 years ago (Bogskar won the National at the age of seven in 1940) and you have to go back a further 28 years to find the last winning six year old. The last successful novice was Mr What in 1958.
Not only have horses aged under 8 not won for eons, but they also have a shocking completion record since 1992, with only 6 of the 38 contenders getting round.
The record of eight-year-olds is not great either, with just one winner (Bindaree in 2002) in the last 17 renewals. A horse needs experience and maturity to cope with such a rough race, tackling unfamiliar obstacles while other horses are crashing about on all sides. How many other races, apart from cross-country and hunter chases, can you name where 13 of the last 21 winners were aged ten or older?
That said, only two teenagers have ever won the National, with the last success coming in 1923 (Sergeant Murphy). In fact, no teenager has even made the frame since 1969.
This is a negative for:
QUINZ (7) (Novice)
QUOLIBET (7)
WHAT A FRIEND (8)
MAJESTIC CONCORDE (8)
CALGARY BAY (8)
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE (8)
KING FONTAINE (8)
PIRAYA (8)
LE BEAU BAI (8)
HELLO BUD (13)
Breeding
Mon Mome bucked the trend in 2009 by becoming the only French bred to have won the Grand National for a century. Admittedly, Gallic breeders did not had anything like as many runners in the past as they have had in recent seasons since the massive influx of their horses to these shores, but since 1998 they have provided over 25% of the runners with only that one success.
Very few races in France are run beyond 3 miles and so breeders have no need to install strong stamina genes into their stock. French breds are also trained harder from a younger age, so they can be past their best when they hit eight or nine years of age and the National is not a race for early maturing types.
For now, we are going to assume that Mon Mome’s win was a one off.
This is a negative for:
OR NOIR DE SOMOZA
BACKSTAGE
QUINZ
QUOLIBET
ORNAIS
PIRAYA
THAT'S RHYTHM
ROYAL ROSA
LE BEAU BAI
One very interesting fact to note is that Old Vic has sired two of the last three winners (Comply Or Die in 2008 and Don't Push It in 2010), and also the runner-up in 2009 (also Comply Or Die) and 2010 (Black Apalachi). Therefore, 4 of the last 6 Grand National winners and runners-up have had the same father. A closer look reveals that those 4 were from a total of just 11 Old Vic progeny who ran in the three years. Last year he sired the 1-2 from four runners and of the other 2 runners, Vic Venturi was "prominent when hampered and unseated rider" at the 20th fence, whilst Comply Or Die was a previous Grand National winner and runner-up.
This is a positive for:
DON'T PUSH IT
COMPLY OR DIE
VIC VENTURI
IN COMPLIANCE
Stamina
Every single winner of the Grand National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over three miles or further over fences. It seems obvious that to win a Grand National a horse should have proven stamina - this is the longest race of the year with a 40-strong field and no contest in which to support a horse with stamina questions to answer. And yet in the six renewals since 2005, 45 non-winners over 3m+ tried their luck in the National (including an incredible 12 in 2008 - exactly 30% of the contenders).
Perhaps the message is finally getting through to connections as just 5 took their chance in both 2009 and 2010, however on both occasions they still represented over 12% of the field.
This is a negative for:
OR NOIR DE SOMOZA
QUOLIBET
IN COMPLIANCE
SANTA´S SON
PIRAYA
ROYAL ROSA
Experience
Each of the last 10 winners had had at least ten starts over fences and none of these had fallen more than twice over fences in their entire careers.
This is a negative for:
MAJESTIC CONCORDE
THE TOTHER ONE
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB
QUINZ
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
MAJESTIC CONCORDE
QUOLIBET
KING FONTAINE
SURFACE TO AIR
ORNAIS
SKIPPERS BRIG
GILES CROSS
7 of the last 10 winners had contested races over the Grand National fences before. This actually didn't apply to Don't Push It last year (though he had won at the previous years' meeting over the Mildmay course), but it did apply to the next five horses home: Black Apalachi had won the Beecher Chase, State Of Play was fourth in the previous seasons' Grand National, Big Fella Thanks was sixth the previous year, Hello Bud had been unplaced in the Becher Chase and Snowy Morning had run in two previous Nationals', including when third two years' earlier.
Given that 5 of the first 6 last year and 7 of the previous 9 winners previously had contested a race over these fences and 5 of the last 8 Grand National winners ran in the previous years' race, it seems clear that there is an "Aintree factor" to consider.
This is a positive for:
DON’T PUSH IT
VIC VENTURI
BIG FELLA THANKS
NICHE MARKET
BACKSTAGE
COMPLY OR DIE
STATE OF PLAY
IN COMPLIANCE
HELLO BUD
ARBOR SUPREME
ROYAL ROSA
ALWAYS WAINING
Weight
The most significant, and perhaps best known, statistic for finding National winners is that in the last 52 runnings only one horse, Red Rum in 1974 and 1977, has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory.
However, there is a distinct possibility that weight may no longer make such a great difference in the National given that Phil Smith, the senior handicapper, has changed the way that weight is allocated. The result is that a lot more horses are jammed up towards the top of the scale than used to be the case.
Last season, Don't Push It won off 11st 5lbs by 5 lengths. Equally significant is the fact that the runner-up last year carried 11st 6lbs (as did the previous years' runner-up).
You can certainly forget the 'under 11st rule' now, as 8 of the last 12 win-and-placed horses carried over 11 stone and it probably won't be too long before the 11st 5lbs barrier is broken. However it seems unlikely that those at the very top of the handicap will be able overcome their weight restrictions and, for now, the 11st 5lbs limit still holds.
This is a negative for:
DON'T PUSH IT (11st 10lbs)
TIDAL BAY (11st 9lbs)
WHAT A FRIEND (11st 6lbs)
VIC VENTURI (11st 6lbs)
Irish-trained horses
Horses trained in Ireland have won 6 of the last 12 runnings of the Grand National (although none of the last 3 renewals). However, Black Apalachi finished second last season and the Irish over-performed previously. In 2008 they supplied the second, third and fourth home from 11 runners and in 2007 the first and fourth. They were also just a short head away from posting a memorable 1-2-3 in 2006.
Coming hot off the back of an extraordinary Cheltenham Festival for the Irish, where they recorded a record 13 successes, there is every chance that they also take this prize back across the water once again.
This is a positive for:
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB
BACKSTAGE
VIC VENTURI
OSCAR TIME
BLUESEA CRACKER
ARBOR SUPREME
MAJESTIC CONCORDE
DOONEYS GATE
BACKSTAGE
KILLYGLEN
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
NORTHERN ALLIANCE
IN COMPLIANCE
GOLDEN KITE
Days since last run
In the past 28 years, all winners had run within the previous 50 days (the last not to do so was Aldaniti in 1981 who returned from a life-threatening illness to win off the back of just one prep-race, although even that was on February 11th of the year in question).
It's certainly wise to oppose horses coming off a long-break.
This is a negative for:
MAJESTIC CONCORDE
OR NOIR DE SOMOZA
DOONEYS GATE
THE TOTHER ONE
CALGARY BAY
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE
GRAND SLAM HERO
STATE OF PLAY
HELLO BUD
THAT´S RHYTHM
ROYAL ROSA
That leaves us with a shortlist of:
BIG FELLA THANKS
BALLABRIGGS
NICHE MARKET
SILVER BY NATURE
CHIEF DAN GEORGE
KILLYGLEN
OSCAR TIME
COMPLY OR DIE
WEST END ROCKER
BLUESEA CRACKER
CAN'T BUY TIME
CHARACTER BUILDING
ARBOR SUPREME
GOLDEN KITE
Trends prediction
If we factor in their recent form, going preferences and other slightly less full proof trends, we predict the following result:
1st – OSCAR TIME
2nd – Silver By Nature
3rd – Chief Dan George
4th - Arbor Supreme
5th – Ballabriggs
6th – Comply Or Die