2010 Grand National Preview
It’s been over thirty years since Red Rum won the Grand National for an historic third time and since then no horse has been able to register more than one victory. However, last year’s winner, Mon Mome, surely has a better chance of defending his crown than many of those who have tried since that memorable April day in 1977.
Mon Mome was a hugely impressive and, in the context of such a competitive race, relatively easy winner in 2009 and he goes into this year’s race in much better form than he was at this time last season. In fact, his effort in last month’s Gold Cup was arguably a career best effort.
He is set to carry a big weight here but, crucially, he is only seven pounds higher than when beating Comply Or Die by 12 lengths in last year’s renewal. He also seems to go on any ground and may, in fact, be even better on the soft ground that is forecast.
Incredibly, the first six home last season all look set to take part again.
Were it not for the excellence of Mon Mome, Comply Or Die would have been the first multiple winner of this contest since Red Rum, having won here in 2008. Last year’s second showed that he clearly loves this place and it doesn’t matter that he has shown little on park courses since as his form was equally uninspiring before last year’s race.
He is eight pounds better off with Mon Mome this time around, but that may not be enough to turn the tables given how emphatically the winner managed to pull clear on the run in. He also wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft.
My Will was third last year and, like Mon Mome, lined up in this year’s Gold Cup on his latest start. However, he showed little at Cheltenham and has, in fact, struggled to recapture his best form all season, whereas last year he came into the race on the back of an excellent fifth in the Gold Cup. Last year may have been his best shot at claiming this prestigious prize and he looks likely to struggle to repeat his effort of 12 months ago.
State Of Play, who finished fourth behind Mon Mome, is another who wouldn’t want to see too much rain. In fact, last year’s good to soft ground was probably too soft for him and may have prevented him finishing closer to the winner as he was upside the leaders two out before tiring on the run in. He’s been dropped a good few pounds since, not least because he has had only one run when he was pulled up in the Hennessy. He showed worringly little that day, but does go very well fresh.
Cerium ran an extraordinary race last year to finish fifth at 100-1. Like State Of Play he’s only been seen on a racecourse once since and it was no surprise that he was totally outclassed on that start in the Gold Cup. However, he wasn’t far behind My Will that day and will enjoy a handy swing in the weights here. He was also a useful novice for Paul Nicholls a few seasons ago and shouldn’t be totally dismissed despite some uninspiring form figures.
Of those who contested the finish last year, no horse has attracted more interest this time around than Big Fella Thanks, the choice of Ruby Walsh. Unlike those who finished in front of him in 2009, he has managed to win a race since and has undoubtedly improved this season, which is not surprising given that he was only a novice when he tackled these fearsome obstacles last season. He jumps well on the whole and showed enough class and speed to win over 2½ miles at Newbury last time out. However, there is a slight question mark over his ability to stay this marathon trip if the ground gets too soft.
By choosing to ride Big Fella Thanks, one of the horses Ruby Walsh turned down was Snowy Morning, who was ninth last year and third in 2008. It can’t have been an easy choice for Walsh as Snowy Morning has been in great from this season. However, part of the reason for that seems to have been that he has enjoyed being dropped back in trip on recent starts and he may struggle to stay here on anything other than good ground.
Tony McCoy is another jockey who has a difficult choice to make, with JP McManus having a number of fancied horses amongst the entries. One of them is Can’t Buy Time, who fell last season. He was struggling at the time, but that effort came off the back of a hard race in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival and the fact that he has had a quieter campaign this season may help him to improve on last season’s showing. His stamina remains a doubt, though, and he is another who would need good ground to have a chance.
By contrast, another faller last year, Chelsea Harbour (now a non-runner), loves soft ground and with so much rain around at the moment deserves a mention for that reason alone. He went off at odds of 100-1 and only made it as far as the big ditch at the third, but in 2008 was a well backed 14-1 shot when he finished ninth on unsuitable going. He stays forever and could run well at a big price, granted the ground he loves.
Cloudy Lane has also run in the last two Nationals, finishing sixth when joint favourite in 2008 and unseating his rider at The Chair last year. He’s been a great servant for connections over the years, but has been in the grip of the handicapper in recent seasons and if he was ever going to win this race his chance probably came and went two years ago. He does retain plenty of ability, though, and on the plus side his yard has been in fine form all season.
Horses who have fallen in a National often go on to run well in a subsequent renewal and of those who capsized last season the one who was running the best race at the time was Black Apalachi. He unseated Denis O’Regan at Becher’s second time around when in the lead and still travelling strongly. Three starts previous to that he had won over these fences in the Becher Chase at the November meeting, so he clearly enjoys the unique Aintree challenge.
He’s had a quiet campaign this season, but has shown enough to suggest he needs to be on the shortlist, not least because he won’t mind soft ground.
Last time out Black Apalachi was beaten by his stablemate Vic Venturi who, like Black Apalachi has a victory here to his name already, having won this season’s Becher Chase. He has always looked like he’d enjoy a marathon trip and seems fairly versatile ground wise, so it isn’t easy to split the Dessie Hughes trained geldings.
Royal Rosa, Palypso De Creek and Hello Bud were third, fourth and fifth behind Vic Venturi in the Becher.
Royal Rosa was an outstanding novice hurdler in his day and, whilst he briefly threatened to reach similar heights over fences, he has had a number of injury setbacks in recent years which have prevented him reaching his full potential. However, that run at Aintree showed that he still has something to offer and, given that he jumps well and stays all day, could be interesting here at a big price. Although he is worse off with Vic Venturi at the weights, he was staying on well at the death in the Becher and so could get closer to the winner with nearly a mile further to travel here. His yard is in fine form too.
That run in November was Palypso De Creek’s first effort over fences in this country (he won a novice hurdle at Towcester on his debut) and he followed it up with a fine second in the Peter Marsh at Haydock (Mon Mome was fourth and Cloudy Lane sixth). He also ran okay last time out in the Pertemps Final at the Festival. He had some decent form in France before joining Charlie Longsdon and, being only seven, should still be improving. The worry is that he faded badly on the run in in the Becher and needs to prove his stamina.
There are no such stamina doubts with Hello Bud who won last year’s Scottish National. He’s not been in great form since, but that may partly be due to the fact that he has been running on unsuitably soft ground. The problem is that he looks unlikely to get his preferred going here either.
Given that concern, Hello Bud’s trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, may have better chances amongst his other entries that include Irish Raptor, Ballyfitz, Razor Royale (now a non-runner) and Beat The Boys.
Irish Raptor has invaluable course form to his name. In fact, he has run over these fences an amazing six times and those efforts include a win, a second and a seventh in the Topham, and two sixths in the Becher Chase. Only once has he failed to complete the course, and he’ll finally get his crack at the big one this season, but there is a concern over his stamina. On the plus side he jumps like a buck and his size means these obstacles hold no fears for him.
Ballyfitz will surely stay the trip, and he loves soft ground, but his jumping can often leave something to be desired. He’s run in plenty of big races already this season including the Paddy Power Gold Cup (where he stayed on to claim fourth after making a number of mistakes), the Hennessy and the Welsh National. He’s well handicapped on the best of his hurdles form (which includes a win in the Pertemps at the Festival) and would be a lot shorter in the betting were it not for the doubts over his fencing. Interestingly, he gave Big Fella Thanks eight pounds and an eleven lengths beating when they met as novices at Cheltenham in November 2008, and yet he is set to receive three pounds from that rival here.
Racing Post Chase winner, Razor Royale (now a non-runner), has had a fine season and surely has more decent races in him, but he has also had a number of hard races and he looked like a horse who had had enough for now when pulled up in the William Hill Chase at the Festival recently.
Beat The Boys seems to either win or pull up and he has done the former twice and the latter three times this season. The problem is there seems to be no logic as to why one happens rather than the other and he ran no sort of race in the William Hill last time, which makes him hard to fancy.
A number of horses who fared considerably better than Razor Royale and Beat The Boys in the William Hill are worthy of consideration here as that contest is always considered an important National trial.
The race was won by Chief Dan George (now a non-runner), but both he and the fourth that day, Offshore Account (now a non-runner), seem unlikely to make the cut here.
That shouldn’t be a problem for the runner up, The Package, who would probably have caught Chief Dan George in a few more strides. He looks well handicapped here, based on that effort, and has really started to fulfil his potential in recent starts. He has looked a bit quirky at times, but these fences may bring out the best in him and he seems suited by big fields where his jockey can cover him up and deliver him late.
Those traits apply equally to Character Building, who was twelfth in the William Hill. He has been seen as a potential National winner since he was second in the National Hunt Chase at the Festival in 2007 and he subsequently won the Kim Muir at the 2009 Festival.
His performance in the William Hill was a bit disappointing, but his whole season has been geared around this race so he may not have been fully wound up for Cheltenham and he wasn’t given a hard time once his chance had gone. He wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft.
Niche Market was ninth in the William Hill and has developed into a fine staying chaser since his victory in last season’s Irish National. He was unlucky not to claim this season’s AON Chase at Newbury and he does, therefore, tick many of the boxes as he jumps, stays and has a touch of class but, being by Presenting, good ground is likely to be key to his chances here.
Tricky Trickster was the horse who got up on the line to deny Niche Market in the AON. Not surprisingly, he was all the rage for this race after that Newbury success, but he ran a shocker in the Gold Cup last time out when heavily supported each way. That clearly wasn’t his true running, but Ruby Walsh has since deserted him in favour of Big Fella Thanks and he has questions to answer. He is also relatively inexperienced for a race of this nature. On the plus side, though, by winning last season’s National Hunt Chase (with Can’t Buy Time and Niche Market well beaten) he has proven his stamina and he seems to handle most surfaces.
Like Niche Market, Dream Alliance already has a National win to his name – this time the Welsh National which he narrowly claimed on heavy ground over Christmas (Ballyfitz was fifth). He has only been out once since, when he was pulled up in Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock. He made mistakes that day, and has taken very little racing over recent seasons, and so may not be one to rely on.
Nozic, a formerly decent performer in France, was ninth at Chepstow and has become a bit disappointing after a bright start to his career in England with Paul Nicholls. He looked a horse to follow after winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in 2008, but hasn’t won since. The good news is that he looks favourably handicapped as a result and he does act in heavy ground.
He is the last of the Nicholls entries and another trainer to have multiple horses engaged at this stage is Willie Mullins.
Aside from Snowy Morning, his number one challenger would appear to be Arbor Supreme. He was disappointing behind Niche Market in last season’s Irish National, but that was an odd race, with not many horses ever getting into contention, and he ran a nice trial for this last time out. He’d like good ground.
Arbor Supreme unseated his rider on his penultimate start in the Thyestes Chase, a race won by Whinstone Boy.
Whinstone Boy (now a non-runner) is trained by Jimmy Mangan who won this contest with Monty’s Pass in 2003. This horse certainly represents the trainer’s best chance yet of following up that success and he is one of the few who’d relish really soft ground. His form is pretty decent too, with plenty of good horses in behind him in the Thyestes and he followed up that effort with a bold display of front running to win another valuable contest last time out.
Arbor Supreme’s stablemates Ballytrim (now a non-runner) and Equus Maximus (now a non-runner) were amongst those left trailing in the Thyestes. Amazingly, they both clashed in the Festival Bumper back in 2006, when both were fancied to run a lot better than they did. In fact, neither has quite reached the heights that looked possible when they first started out and they have it to do here. The hope is that the extreme trip may bring out some improvement. Equus Maximus loves soft ground, whilst Ballytrim is perfectly happy on a sounder surface.
Other Irish challengers to consider include Backstage, Ballyholland and King Johns Castle.
Backstage has had what has become the traditional Irish build up to this race with a number of runs over hurdles designed to protect his handicap mark. His trainer is another to have won the National before – with Silver Birch in 2007 – so he knows how to lay one out for the race. The further he goes, the better he seems to like it, but all his best form has been on good or even good to firm ground.
Ballyholland has a very similar profile, having graduated from the point to point fields and subsequently done much of his winning at Perth. The two actually clashed at the Scottish track in May in the Perth Gold Cup, with Backstage coming out on top. However, Ballyholland will have the benefit of a decent swing in the weights here.
Kings Johns Castle was second in this race in 2008, but has run only five times since due to injury. His last two efforts have been over hurdles, but he hasn’t shown much sparkle and connections must be hoping that a return here will revive his fortunes.
His owner is JP McManus who, as well as Can’t Buy Time and Arbor Supreme, also has Don’t Push It amongst the entries.
Don’t Push It has always looked a big race winner in waiting, but has often disappointed on the big occasion. He did win a valuable handicap over the Mildmay course at this meeting last season, and was only just touched off in another valuable race at Cheltenham in November. He’s always seemed to have his own thoughts about the game, but he is worth a try at this sort of trip and could be a threat if taking to these unique obstacles. His jumping can be a worry, but he has a touch of class. He’ll either love it or hate it.
Others to consider include the Pipe duo Madison Du Belais and Faasel (now a non-runner), Maljimar and long shot Mr Pointment (now a non-runner).
Madison Du Belais heads the weights and he deserves to on the basis of a number of top class performances he has registered over the past couple of seasons including wins in the Hennessy in 2008 and the Totesport Bowl Chase here last April. He is at his best on flat tracks such as this and it will be interesting to see how he copes with this trip.
Faasel (now a non-runner) has also had plenty of highlights in his career to date, not least a second in a Triumph Hurdle, a fourth in an Arkle and most recently a second in a Kim Muir at this year’s Festival. That second was his first start for David Pipe and he was an unlucky loser as he was in front shortly after the line.
He has also been very quirky in his time, but Aintree can suit quirky types and his latest effort suggests he may be able to get this trip. If he takes to the fences, he could surprise a few people.
Maljimar is also unlucky not to have a Festival win to his name having been caught by Wichita Lineman in the shadow of the post in last season’s William Hill Chase. He’s been lightly raced this season, as connections have had this race in mind for some time, but ran well over the cross country course at Cheltenham in December proving that day that he can stay beyond 3 miles. He’s another who has always looked to have a big race in him.
Mr Pointment (now a non-runner) has followed the path previously trodden by Cerium by joining Paul Murphy’s yard from Paul Nicholls and it’s not impossible to see him matching his stablemate by running well here at a huge price. He’s been very lightly raced throughout his career as he has had all sorts of injury problems, but he was hugely impressive when winning the Becher Chase back in 2007. He’s well handicapped on his best form and the change of stables might have reinvigorated him.
CONCLUSION: Doubts about the likely going and the makeup of the final field make ante post punting more risky than ever at this stage.
Were he in the top forty, or even top forty five, entries then Whinstone Boy would be the selection, but at 46 on the list he seems unlikely to get a run. The same goes for Faasel, who’d be a fascinating outsider were he not the 47th entry.
As you’d expect, the powerful yards of Nicholls, Pipe, Mullins and Twiston-Davies all have multiple entries, but no trainer seems to have a stronger hand than Dessie Hughes and whichever of his duo of Black Apalachi and Vic Venturi finishes in front could well end up the winner.
True, they both have to carry more than 11st 6lbs which, according to the Trends, gives them little chance. However, Mon Mome (French bred) and Comply Or Die (wore blinkers), have both blown the stats out of the water in the last two Nationals and with the handicapper now trying to make sure no horses runs from out of the handicap it is surely only a matter of time before the infamous 11st 5lb threshold is broken.
Preference is for VIC VENTURI in the expectation that the ground dries out a touch before the off. He’s always looked like he’d relish a marathon trip.
The Package looks very well handicapped and could give the selection most to do, providing he has recovered fully from his exertions at the Festival, whilst it is hard to see last year’s winner Mon Mome not also being in the shake up.
To complete the places, Arbor Supreme would have to come into the reckoning if the going is good, whilst Maljimar and Palyspo De Creek look best of those at bigger prices.
If you expect rain to keep the ground soft or heavy, then Royal Rosa and Ballyfitz (in the hope that his jumping holds up) would be other outsiders to consider.
PREDICTION (as at 5th April, assuming the ground is soft or good to soft):
1st – Vic Venturi
2nd – The Package
3rd – Mon Mome
4th – Black Apalachi
5th – Arbor Supreme
6th – Maljimar