2011 Grand National Preview
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It is nearly 40 years since Red Rum became the last horse to win back to back renewals of the worlds' greatest steeplechase, which is a statistic that could be construed in two ways when it comes to assessing the chances of last years' hero, Don't Push It.
On the one hand, the passage of time has shown exactly how tough it is to follow up victory here twelve months later. On the other hand, the law of averages suggests we must be due a repeat success soon and in fairness to Don't Push It he has as good a chance of doing the double as any of the horses that have tried since 1974.
In his favour is the fact that he is at his best at this time of year. He also won last years' renewal with a good deal in hand and so could be capable of overcoming his five pound rise in the weights. His form is on the up too, with two eye catching performances over hurdles to his name recently, (he could be seen staying on nicely at the death in both contests).
He has always had a touch of class and with his preparation having gone as smoothly as it has he must have a decent chance of at least finishing in the first four.
Plenty of those who finished in behind Don't Push It last year look to take him on again here.
State Of Play was third last year and, having finished fourth the year before, has developed into something of an Aintree specialist. Indeed, he hasn't run since the 2010 renewal, having been deliberately kept fresh for another crack at the race by his connections. At 11 years old, he is unlikely to be improving and although he has been dropped three pounds by the handicapper it is hard to see him being good enough to improve on his position last season.
By contrast, the fourth in 2011, Big Fella Thanks, is still only nine and so should be reaching his peak. He has switched to Ferdy Murphys yard since that run and his whole season has revolved around this race. The one concern is his ability to stay the trip (he was also sixth here in 2009, but on both occasions he faded at the death), but his training has been geared towards improving his stamina. He also has plenty to find with Don't Push It on the formbook as he gets only a seven pound swing in the weights for a 28 length beating last year.
The same is true of Hello Bud, who only gets an extra six pounds from Don't Push It this year, despite being 35 lengths back in fifth last season. Jumping is his strong point, so it would be no surprise to see him putting in another clear round, but he is 13 now so his chances of winning this great race may have gone. On the plus side, he has been more lightly raced this campaign and so will at least be fresher than last year. He also reaffirmed his liking for this course when winning the Becher Chase in November.
Character Building was seventh behind Don't Push It, having got behind early on after some slopping jumping. He did creep into the race on the second circuit and briefly looked a threat, before fading, so there is a slight question mark over his stamina. His form so far this season has been okay, but the handicapper knows all about him now and there are likely to be at least a few better treated horses than him. On the plus side, his stable is in flying form at the minute.
Horses that fall or unseat their rider in one years' National can often come back and run well the following year and three casualties from last season worthy of consideration here are Vic Venturi, Backstage and Arbor Supreme, all of whom were unseated.
Vic Venturi was badly hampered and went at the 20th, when still travelling well. He hasn't won so far this season, but will have to race off a two pound higher mark than he did last year, which seems harsh. He has, however, won over these fences before and has always threatened to be suited by this marathon trip.
Backstage was caught up in the same melee as Vic Venturi at the 20th last season and also unseated at that fence. He too was still going well and could easily have been involved in the finish.
He has had an unusual preparation so far this season winning his last two starts in point to points but it was a preparation that served his trainer well with Silver Birch who won this race in 2007.
Good ground is the key to Backstage, but he could still be well handicapped, providing conditions are suitable, as he should improve for this step up in trip.
Arbor Supreme also needs good ground to be at his best, something he doesn't often get in his native Ireland. He was unseated at the Chair last season and connections were clearly pleased with the way he took to the fences as he has been targeted at this years' contest ever since. His best effort so far this campaign came in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last time out, suggesting he is peaking at just the right time. Also in his favour is the form of the Willie Mullins yard, which has been firing in the winners all season long.
That Fairyhouse race could prove key in trying to determine the winner of this contest as it was won by The Midnight Club with Oscar Time third, Vic Venturi fourth and Bluesea Cracker sixth.
The Midnight Club is a stablemate of Arbor Supreme and Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride him in preference to the other Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls entries.
He has always had a touch of class about him having been placed at the Cheltenham Festival in both 2009 and 2010 (he was third in the 2009 Albert Bartlett and the 2010 Jewson). He is also ultra consistent having only been out of the first four twice in 19 starts in point to points and under rules.
His effort in the Albert Bartlett demonstrated his stamina and a staying on third in last seasons' Jewson hinted at the fact that a step in trip over fences this season would bring about further improvement. It certainly has, and the Fairyhouse win was a career best effort. The only concern is his jumping, as he can make the odd mistake.
There is a real chance that Oscar Time could give Gold Cup winning jockey, Sam Waley-Cohen a famous double here. He is probably the best jumper of a fence in the field and has been running consistently well on very soft going in Ireland for the last couple of years. However, he is crying out for some better ground and if he gets it here he should be a major player as he stays extremely well, something he proved when he finished second in the 2010 Irish National behind Bluesea Cracker.
Bluesea Cracker enjoys a decent turnaround in the weights here with those horses that finished in front of her in the Bobbyjo and given that she was staying on well at the death it is not impossible to think that she might be able to reverse that form as she relishes extreme distances. Unlike a lot of the fancied runners, she wouldn't find a bit of rain a problem.
Willie Mullins has a number of other entries, most interesting of which is Dooneys Gate. He has been very lightly raced during his career to date and so, although he is now ten years old, could still be improving. His pedigree also suggests that he could step up on what he has shown so far if the ground is decent and he was a staying on fourth in last seasons' Topham. He's bang in form too, as a career best effort at Clonmel last time out showed.
With the Irish having had such a good Cheltenham Festival recently all of their runners here are worthy of consideration and pick of the rest of them may prove to be In Compliance and Majestic Concorde.
In Compliance has twice found himself behind Dooneys Gate recently, including in last years' Topham. However, he is starting to re-find the form that saw him beat War Of Attrition in December 2006, nine months after that horse won the Gold Cup.
He is extremely well handicapped on that form, but has yet to win beyond 2 miles.
Majestic Concorde hasn't run since beating Becauseicouldntsee in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstowns Christmas Festival. That was a fine weight carrying performance from the winner and the first time he has won over three miles. He still has to prove his stamina over this sort of trip, but the ground was heavy that day making the contest a real stamina test. He also stayed well on the flat and is extremely versatile in every way as he is equally at home on decent ground and over hurdles.
Becauseicouldntsee is relatively lightly raced, but has always been seen as a staying chaser by his connections and after running well in the National Hunt Chase at the 2010 Festival (where he finished 2nd) he looked set to contest the Welsh National, before that race was abandoned and he was diverted to Leopardstown instead.
He has not been seen out since and should relish this trip. He also has plenty of size about him and so these fences shouldn't hold too many fears for him.
The Welsh National has often been a decent guide to this race in the past. Silver By Nature was seventh in the Welsh National and subsequently put up a top class performance when claiming back to back wins in Haydocks' Grand National Trial in February, despite being burdened with top weight. He is one of the best staying chasers around and wont have any trouble with the trip. However, although he does act on decent going, he would prefer some cut in the ground, as he finds it easier to lay up with better horses on a slower surface.
West End Rocker and King Fontaine were both pulled up in that Haydock race.
West End Rocker had won his two races prior to that, including over 3 miles in heavy ground at Warwick, an effort which suggested that this marathon trip should hold no fears for Alan Kings nine year old. However, he has often thrown in the odd disappointing effort in the past and his overall form may not be quite good enough here.
King Fontaine looked a horse to follow when winning at Haydock in November and he started to put his poor effort at the same course in February behind him when a respectable, and staying on, fifth in the Stewart Family Spinal Research Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He still needs to brush up his jumping, though, and this years renewal may come a year too soon for him.
Chief Dan George was a faller in the Stewart Family Chase, a race he won in 2010. This is very much his time of year and stamina has always been his forte, something he demonstrated early on in his novice hurdle days when he captured the Sefton Novices Hurdle at this meeting in 2007. He is another who performs best on a sound surface as he isnt the biggest of horses. Despite that, his Cheltenham mishap was his only fall in 13 starts over fences to date.
As you'd expect, a number of other horses who ran at this years' Cheltenham Festival are among the entries for this race, including those that finished fourth and sixth in the Gold Cup.
What A Friend was the fourth, and that was some performance considering he had only Long Run, Denman and Kauto Star in front of him. Indeed, he nearly caught Kauto Star for third and based on that effort he is the best handicapped horse in the line up. The problem with him is that he is very quirky and he could easily love or hate this. There is also a question mark as to whether or not the blinkers which he wore for the first time at Cheltenham will have the same effect here. He needs good ground.
Tidal Bay is equally quirky, if not more so, and he did his usual trick in the Gold Cup of flying up the Cheltenham hill when the race was already over. He is arguably the classiest horse in the line up here and in many ways he deserves to win another big race as he's put up some cracking efforts in some of the most prestige races since he won the 2008 Arkle. As with What A Friend, if he takes to the fences he'll be a real threat, but he can't afford to drop himself out the back as he often does in his races as it is getting harder and harder to win the National from well off the pace.
Prior to the Gold Cup, Tidal Bay finished second in the Argento Chase on Cheltenham's Trials Day, a race in which The Tother One was fourth.
The Tother One (who was fifth to Chief Dan George at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival) has often being seen staying on at the end of some decent handicaps over the past couple of seasons, suggesting that he is ready for this step up in trip. He does make plenty of mistakes in his race, which is a worry, but if he gets round he could easily do best of the Paul Nicholls runners.
The other Nicholls horse to consider is Niche Market who was all the rage for this race last season, before running disappointingly and pulling up. He joined Nicholls after that race and it will be interesting to see if he can get the horse back to the form that saw him winning the 2009 Irish National. There wasn't much encouragement on his last start, but, like many of these, his whole campaign has been geared to this contest. His effort when fifth in the Hennessy (where The Tother One finished one place in front of him) offers more hope.
Another previous Cheltenham Festival winner to consider is Ballabriggs, who won the 2010 Kim Muir. He has been a strong fancy for this race ever since then and his first two starts this season, which he won, were over hurdles to protect his handicap mark. His last start was over fences at Kelso when he was just beaten by Skipper Briggs (who is unlikely to make the cut for this race) with Chief Dan George third.
That defeat raised some further slight doubt about his stamina, which first arose after his Kim Muir success. He clearly stays three miles well, but this contest is over another mile and a half and he does travel keenly through his races. Accordingly, his connections wouldn't want to see too much rain in the build up to this years' renewal.
Calgary Bay has been a regular at recent Cheltenham Festival's and he finished sixth in last seasons' Gold Cup.
He had lost his way slightly at the start of the 2009/10 season, but bounced back to form with a good win in a competitive handicap at Doncaster and he has been fairly consistent since. Hes been tried over a range of trips in recent seasons, and there have to be doubts about his stamina. However, he does jump and travel well (Tony McCoy once described as the most athletic big horse I've ever ridden), and it is not hard to see him running well for a long way here granted his favoured decent ground.
Nigel Twiston-Davies' other entry, Grand Slam Hero has shown all his best form on quickish ground but, in any event, he doesn't look quite good enough to win this.
David Pipe is another trainer with multiple entries. Chief among them are 2008 winner, Comply Or Die and a recent import from France, Or Noir de Somoza.
Since his success here, Comply Or Die has finished 2nd and 12th in the 2009 and 2010 renewals, proving himself a real Aintree specialist. He was fancied by connections to run well in the Eider Chase last time out, but hated the heavy ground. With the handicapper having at last given him some respite, he can be expected to put up another bold show here, but he may find one or two of his younger rivals too good.
Or Noir de Somoza has been doing virtually all his running at Auteuil, which is no bad grounding for a crack at these fences. He was not far below the best chases in France before making the switch to the Pipe yard, but he is unproven on anything other than very soft ground. His stamina, though, shouldn't be an issue.
The final horse to consider is recent Racing Post winner, Quinz. He has been kept fresh for this race since that Kempton success and he does look well handicapped. The concern is his tender age and lack of experience.
CONCLUSION
If the weather forecasts prove correct then this years' National should be run on some decent ground, which will suit most of the leading contenders.
Last years' winner, Don't Push It sets the standard and, having arguably enjoyed a better preparation for this years' renewal than he did last year, he looks set to reach the frame again.
However, with the Irish having had their best ever Cheltenham Festival only a couple of weeks ago, it would be folly to overlook their challenge here and OSCAR TIME is the selection to take this great prize back across the water once again.
Indeed, Irish horses can dominate the places, with The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme both set for big runs.
PREDICTION
1st - Oscar Time
2nd - Don't Push It
3rd - The Midnight Club
4th - Arbor Supreme
5th - The Tother One
6th - Calgary Bay
Chief Dan George and Dooneys Gate appeal most of those at bigger prices.
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